I am amazed that they (the banks) already went along with a maturity extension out to 2012 without a management change. The idea Sloan has been enacting of increasing production commitments beyond any possible coverage by their cash flow and beyond any existing credit commitments is silly. He said earlier he thought that starting up and/or participating in new big projects increases value. No it does not. A management change and a strategy change is in order and may be coming soon.
BY NIKKI FINKE
Published on May 20, 2009 at 8:18pm
MGM Fights To Survive
And you think your monthly credit-card payments are steep? Faced with $3.7 billion in debt due in July 2012, beleaguered MGM will pay $250 million in interest alone by April 2010. Just think if that money could be spent on actual film production.
Shame on Harry Sloan, who has been running the moribund studio ever since 2005, when Sony and Comcast and Providence Equity Partners and TPG Capital paid roughly $5 billion in debt and equity to acquire then–publicly traded MGM from its majority owner Kirk Kerkorian. But Sloan waited, and waited, and waited to put MGM on firm financial footing. Then, the credit crisis began.
In all fairness, most business leaders were caught by this crisis, but still they should all pay the penalty. After all, they are paid a lot of money to anticipate the unexpected. Any fool can get caught unprepared.
Now I hear his production boss Mary Parent is helping to make that happen, after nagging everyone to get ahead of this coming 2012 crisis with the intent of freeing up the company from some of the long-term debt to allow additional capital to finance more productions for her. The good news is that MGM (a private company so, frankly, it can claim anything it wants to without fear of the SEC) isn’t going out of business right this minute. Not with a library that throws off half a billion dollars annually.
But what productions and what strategy? The fact they have a library throwing off $500 million annually is why the company will be restructured and survive, and why with the right strategy they can stay independent.
In fact, the studio is making movies. And it reported May 14 that it made its numbers for last year and is current on its debt payments. I’d love to believe this. Even more, I’m relieved the studio is coming clean about its problems after I’d been hearing for the past month that MGM debt holders and equity stakeholders have been fighting to the point where both sides are “on a war footing.” That’s been exacerbated by the coming audit this summer to identify whether projects are really under way in film and TV. The fear is, if the auditors were to represent that the studio isn’t a going concern, that would bring on a battle royal.
Management can't come clean about its problem because that would be suicide. As far as a 'war' between debt holders and equity stakeholders, no. When the time is right the former are going to wipe out the latter putting in place new management and, hopefully, a new strategy.
And what would a viable strategy look like?
Given the lack of deep pockets behind the company, and the need to keep debt levels modest (finally please learn at least this lesson already), a revitalized MGM should 1) ignore / avoid mega projects that the companies with deep pockets are getting involved in 2) focus on several modest projects annually (max $20 million budget) 3) emphasizing story driven scripts - no expensive special effect movies 4) avoid expensive talent - there are just too many 'undiscovered' actors and writers out there to pay multi-million dollar fees and salaries
In any case the decision time is approaching triggered by an event of default. Likely that will be the auditor refusing to sign off on the company as a going concern with its current capital structure and its increasing obligations.
There are rumors that both corporate raider/shareholder activist Carl Icahn is circling to buy the company as well as Relativity’s hedge-fund backer. And then there’s the chatter that the deal with Merrill Lynch to finance production at MGM’s UA is “hanging by a thread.”
What I and other journalists had reported about Goldman Sachs trying to come to the rescue is still true. GS has been helping to raise more capital. I’m told that one possibility explored was that MGM would sell off United Artists. (The cash from the sale would have been used for operational needs at MGM. But the banks that relied on that asset would have to sign off on such a deal.)
Now investment bankers Moelis & Co. have been hired to advise the studio on a potential restructuring and to explore options for optimizing its capital structure (i.e., talking to lenders about altering MGM’s long-term debt obligations). “You lower your interest payments, you free up cash to make more movies,” a source tells me. “With debt selling at a discount [50 cents on the dollar], every company is doing the same.”
This would make a great comedy plot. There is one large bank group of 140 banks. The financial advisor is probably going to recommend to the banks something like this: you banks advance us more debt/cash and agree to reduce your existing debt by 2/3rds or so, leaving the existing owners and management in place (that would be the owners and management who created the problem resulting in the debt holders losing a couple billion bucks, now wouldn't it?) The banks are likely to come back with (as soon as an event of default occurs) let's put you into bankruptcy, wipe out your equity, and only then when the banks become the new owners will we agree to reducing debt, and by the way management is terminated. We'll get someone new - could they do any worse?
I hope this new plan of attack can help. Because it’s vital to Hollywood that this buyer survive. Everyone knows that Mary Parent has been holding the studio together with the equivalent of chicken wire: specifically by partnering with studios left and right because they are willing to front the costs of each production. Things aren’t much better on the TV side. And if the auditors declare MGM technically insolvent, all hell breaks loose.
Soon, soon.
Unfortunately to get to the resurrection, one needs the death part first.
http://www.laweekly.com/2009-05-21/news ... ood-style/